There are quite a lot of people very loyal to Nokia.
The above chart looks like it assumes that Microsoft is able to keep or convert about 3/4 of the volume of Nokia's current customer base. This could be through Nokia retaining most of its customer volume or Microsoft picking up new customers.
I assume that by 2015, Windows Phone 9 will be the current OS iteration. I also expect that we will continue to see WP8 and even WP7 being sold to select markets. Yes, that wasn't a typo.
By then, WP7 handsets will be dirt cheap to make. And I don't think Nokia has any plans to abandon their low end market, so they will probably have those low end cheap 1Ghz phones loaded with WP7.
This could lead some to worry about fragmentation, but I don't see fragmentation as much of an issue. Anything created for WP7 will run on higher versions of the OS. And all handsets of a particular version will have a set of its own minimum specs that developers could target. A developer won't have to worry about picking a target market, and then still having to develop for multiple specs for that market.
So I see this prediction as realistic. I already thought that WP7 would end up gaining market share in a huge way. Especially with the Nokia deal. I'm glad to see that there's an organization that agrees with me.
Last edited by Nelson Ocampo; 03-30-2011 at 06:15 AM..