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No, it'll peak. It may well peak at #1 in the US and stay there for a while, but as with all things like this, it'll peak. Especially if Apple keeps just "tweaking" their product (like Palm did for WAY too long). I love my iPhone 3GS, but I'm already frustrated by too many things it can't do, some of which AREN'T power user things (like "simply" listening to Pandora while getting turn-by-turn GPS directions or something truly as simple as sharing data between applications) and are becoming expected.
I'm sure Apple will get around to multitasking and MAYBE even data sharing, but even if it does, there are too many good competitors out there for it to remain dominant "indefinitely" without some pretty major innovation. Most of the competition has caught up in terms of usability and surpassed in terms of capabilities. They lag only a little in apps (real apps, I mean, so don't start quoting 85,000 apps BS). Plus, in this type of market, once a product reaches too many, it becomes passe (look no further than the RAZR for this). If they just bring out a 3Gx next year (or anything that continues to be a slab with an app launcher for a home screen), I'm thinking even fans are going to start looking at other "good" options, which most certainly do exist.
Oh, and those numbers and this analysis apply only to the US...elsewhere the picture looks WAY different. Also, remember that Apple is still very consumer-focused. It remains to be seen if they'll make real headway into the corporate world (which is RIM's stronghold).
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