I share your skepticism. Definitely a photoshop job. Not only for the reasons posted all over the internet (migrating battery and signal icons, today icon stolen from a Mac, etc.), but the little details are off too.
The "hex" themed Start menu icon is a resized cut and pasted mess. It is also a pixel or two further to the right than the Zune theme one. The battery indicator is a pixel row lower in the hex version. The signal strength is not centered between its adjacent icons in the hex version. What is the "2" indicating on the hex one? Two missed calls? Two text messages? Two voicemails? Number of minutes spent designing... Nah, I won't go there.
Nothing about either one says Microsoft mobile to me, short of the crudely pasted Start icons, and I just could not see Microsoft not embracing their brand. Even if they do fresh'n it up.
If I had to guess, I would say we are going to see little change in the UI for Windows mobile standard and 6.5 will mainly be about enhancing Pro (similarly opposite of 6.0 to 6.1). The Pro Today screen will end up with sliding panels similar to standard. I think they'll also add global gesture support and other finger friendly enhancements and possibly support for capacitive touch screens. ...or maybe that’s my wishful thinking.
