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A good and thorough analysis.
I think you missed one salient point. If M500 news squelched Palm V sales (really the start of Palms whole financial slide) what is news of OS5 doing to current sales? By now PPC should have well over half the market. We may still see that by the time Q3 numbers show up. But, by then the telling Chrismas period will be over.
What I would like to know, even more than total $ volume is profitability. Casio obviously looses money on each model they palm off on someone, from the $49 Pocket managers to the $500+ E200s. Otherwise they would not be getting out of the market.
Compaq makes huge money on their PPCs. According to a report on the new Dell, Compaq pays HTC about $200 for their PPCs. Even after rebates, they are fetching twice that at retail.
I think ThomasC22 may be right about this coming down to Toshiba vs Sony. Compaq and Palm will be in there, but they seem to lack a clear idea of what they can and want to do.
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