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The first two points match exactly what I thought when I heard the rumor. We'll essentially see a refresh of the current lineup for holiday 08... I would add new colors to what you already have there. There is really only so much that you could do with the current form factors. Optimistically, I would like to see some minor hardware tweaks too like slight reduction in size for the HDD model, and maybe a slightly bigger screen for the flash models.
I disagree on the 3rd point though... my guess is that they are really aligning for a big splash (i.e. the 3rd gen Zunes) which would match what you had in the 3rd point in 2009. That type of device (particularly if done right) would take some significant effort. I'd love for you to be right and pleasantly surprised.
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