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True, counting on the telcos to drive prices down sounds counter-intuitive, based on their history and vested interests...
...but...
The "dark fiber" debacles are presenting them with both an opportunity and a challenge in the form of the massive, in-place, unused (mostly-back-end) bandwidth capacity the current telcos inherited from their precursor baby bells from the fiber investment rush of the 90's. Dark-fiber weighs heavy on their financials *and* in the minds of regulators weighing net-neutrality.
So the threat of regulatory action to force them to open up the back-end capacity to innovative would-be comptetitors is a *strong* incentive for the telcos to hurry up deployment of IPTV just as the technology is maturing that allows for video over copper "last-mile".
This, in turn, means the concern over the cost of bringing fiber to individual homes is slowly giving way to the realization that if the right technology is used they don't necessarily need to take fiber any further than is already in place.
Descriptions I've seen of the IPTV system SBC is building off MS tech say it is streaming-based, not broadcast-based, so its bandwidth needs are much reduced over the current cable-delivered model; it allows for two SD TV channels, two (full-res) HD TV, channels, two voice lines, and one broadband data channel, all simultaneously over existing last-mile copper lines.
This, of course, because of the WMV-derived streaming and *compression* tech they're using (sorry, Mr Charette! :wink: ).
Naturally, the same tech over last-mile fiber or coax cable could deliver magic (QuadHD video, for one), but that is a dream for the next decade.
The dual opportunity/challenge facing the telcos is that MS is actively pushing their tech to all comers so if net neutrality is mandated, and they don't use these TV over IP techs, somebody else will. (Think COVAD DSL, among others...)
That's why I think commoditization is coming to HD distribution; the tech works and if the telcos can't block it, so they might as well get on with it and beat the bandwidth re-marketters to market.
And, bottom-line: these services are on track to deliver all-HD channel line-ups just as dropping hardware costs drive the cable-only broadcasters to (at last!) adopt HD for their content.
Come '09, all the pieces *should* to be in place for the shutdown of analog broadcasting for those consumers wishing to move to HD: cheap hardware, reasonably-priced high-quality content, and a competitive distribution environment.
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